A candlelit dinner is romantic, a candlelit surgical operation is not
Raffaella Centurelli - International Energy Agency
Today 1.4 billion people - more than 20% of the global population - has no access to electricity, whereas more than 2.7 billion people use traditional biomasses to cook, breathing substances that are very harmful to their health: every year the number of premature deaths from respiratory disease related with these practices is higher than the number of deaths from malaria and tuberculosis. According to our estimates, if governments do not take any strong actions, the problem will persist and get worse in the long term. In 2030 people without electricity will be a little less than today – 1.2 billion, but the number of users of traditional biomasses will increase to 2.8 billion, recording more premature deaths than HIV.
In which areas of the world is the problem especially serious?
More than 85% of the people without modern forms of electricity live in the rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa and South- East Asia. The bigger problem is in Sub-Saharan Africa, where only 31% of the population has access to electricity, being the lowest percentage in the world. Just think that the 20 million people who live in New York consume, in one year, the same quantity of energy – 40TWh – as the about 800 million people in Sub- Saharan Africa.
What is the connection between access to energy and development?
Access to modern forms of energy is a prerequisite for social and economic development. It is crucial to supply drinking water and deliver basic hygienic services. It brings benefits in terms of development, giving people the possibility to rely on lighting, air-conditioning, cooking, automation of daily operations, transport, and telecommunication services. In spite of the evident relation between energy and development, unfortunately the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) make no explicit reference to energy and contain neither quantity objectives nor specific indicators to allow Governments and the international community to monitor the progress towards universal access to modern energy. Recently, however, positive steps forward have been taken: the Advisory Group on Energy and Climate Change at the UN asked for a goal to be adopted on this issue by 2030 and the United Nations has declared 2012 the "Year of sustainable energy for all".
How can energy contribute to achieve the existing Millennium Goals?
As we said earlier, access to energy is not explicitly among the MDGs, but it is a prerequisite for many of the UN existing goals. Access to energy surely contributes to the first MDG: eliminate extreme poverty and hunger. It supports economic development, giving more efficient and safer means to guarantee basic needs and undertake productive activities. Energy allows electric pumps to bring water up from wells, providing drinking water and making agriculture more productive. Access to modern, clean cooking methods would guarantee the progress of the goals related to infant mortality and pregnant women's health (MDGs 4, 5, 6): according to the World Heath Organisation the polluting substances emitted by traditional stoves are responsible today for the premature death of more than 1.45 million people.
In Regions where the use of biomasses prevails, women and children are generally in charge of collecting fuel, an activity that demands time and fatigue.
Providing cooking instruments, communication technologies and, even more simply, lighting and electricity, will contribute to MDGs 2 and 3, donating time to women and children, supporting schooling and allowing women to develop their potential. Finally, universal access to modern energy will contribute to MDG 7: guarantee environmental sustainability. Abandoning the unsustainable use of firewood would relieve pressure on the environment, avoiding deforestation and soil erosion. Cleaner energy would decrease greenhouse gas emissions, reducing climate change.
The IEA has published a study where they estimate the costs necessary to face the issue of universal access to modern forms of energy by 2030. What are the main results?
Bringing electricity to 1.2 billion people by 2030 means a total investment of 700 billion dollars between 2010 and 2030, i.e. 33 billion dollars every year. To guarantee universal access to clean modern forms of cooking for 2.8 billion people an investment of 2.6 billion dollars a year is needed: therefore, 36 billion dollars a year would be needed to achieve both results by 2030. The majority of investments for electrification must take place in Sub-Saharan Africa and in the developing regions of Asia.
What are the requisites in your scenario of universal access to modern energy services?
To guarantee universal access to electricity a total increment of electricity production of approximately 950 TWh by 2030 is needed. To generate this extra energy we need to increment the productive capacity by 250 GW, both through generation with the electrical mains and through "off grid" solutions. These decentralised solutions play a central role for rural areas and will represent the majority of investments in the period of consideration.
Do you think these investments will actually be made?
Investments to guarantee universal access to modern energy services by 2030 seem very high and so far they have been lower than the real needs. However, it is necessary to see things under the correct light. The investments that are necessary for the next twenty years would be 36 billion dollars a year, an amount that only accounts for 0.05% of the annual global GDP. In 2009 an amount ten times higher was spent on subsidies for fossil fuels and the costs to guarantee energy access in the ten biggest gas and oil exporting Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa is 0.4% of the cumulative oil and gas revenues of Governments up to 2030 (WEO 2008). We have calculated that the addition of 0.3 cents of a dollar to the current rates of the OECD Countries could finance the additional investment to achieve universal energy access.
What do you think is the biggest challenge facing the issue of energy and poverty?
The need for relatively high investments is neither the only nor the biggest barrier. The recognition of the urgency of this issue by the international community and national Governments, together with a long-term political commitment, are the real "condition sine qua non". Giving the priority to the issue of energy access as a key factor for development is a first step. We will need the commitment of the international community, the definition of national goals supported by specific plans, monitoring and an appropriate financial, technological and institutional framework.
What is the link between energy access and another big challenge: climate change?
Climate change is a global problem and therefore requires global solutions. Poor Countries are certainly not among the major causes of climate change, but their populations are suffering the most severe effects of it. Moreover, in developing Countries that import oil, volatility and price increases have amplified the problem of energy access and imposed an additional burden on fiscal budgets. Today, these Countries face difficult choices with reference to resource allocation. Among the various development needs, climate change is often considered as a long term problem versus more urgent priorities and problems. We have estimated that universal access to electricity would have a modest impact on energy-related CO2 emissions and on energy demand. Emissions would only increase by 0.8% in 2030 - that is, 2% of the current emissions of the OECD Countries. And oil demand would grow less than 1% if compared with the demand level expected in 2030. This proves that energy access and climate change are two challenges that can be fought and solved together.
What are your next steps?
In our opinion it is crucial to identify the best way to find and manage the necessary funds to provide energy access to those living in poverty conditions. We are working on a special edition of the World Energy Outlook 2011 that will present a new architecture to finance universal access to modern energy forms. We will present our conclusions during a summit that will be held by the Norwegian Government in October 2011 in Oslo. We hope to make the issue of energy and poverty the first item on the international agenda.
Human capital: from responsibility to sustainability
Giuseppe Soda, SDA Bocconi School of Management
In the debate on competitiveness of economic systems that pervades the economic world, from corporations to policymakers, the call for the need to invest in human capital is almost never missing. This happy intuition, which we owe to the Nobel Memorial Prize Winner, Gary Becker, is based on the idea that people can really make the difference in competitive processes that are more and more founded on knowledge accumulation speed, innovation and intangible elements. In brief, individual creativity, knowledge, skills, motivation and involvement are central elements in corporate innovation and development processes. They are the only road to maintain leadership positions in high added value sectors and globalised competition.
This is also true for developing Countries, where competence is a lever for growth, although from the viewpoint of many corporations the idea of human capital in these situations is still related to the cost compared advantage. While general agreement exists on these statements, together with some rhetoric, their practical translation is different. In spite of the strong commitment of many corporations and some Countries, reality seems to be different. Once again, the recent crisis has demonstrated that actions on human capital have not found, either in the economic policies or corporate strategies, consistent answers with the supposed centrality, often assuming in some instances a secondary, if not marginal, role. So, a legitimate doubt arises: when we say that the richness of a Country is strictly linked with the competitiveness of its corporations and "system" and when we affirm that in the globalised knowledge economy the most critical asset for corporations and Countries is the human capital, do financial markets and tutors of the "value" generated by corporations really believe in this?
What may seem a rhetorical question must however find an answer in policies and actions, otherwise we remain in the intellectually interesting, yet sterile field of hypotheses. If we really believed in it, then the empirical evidence should deliver clearer data on the positive reaction towards virtuous corporations in mediumlong term competitiveness and in the capacity of generating new knowledge and innovation through the effective management of human capital.
Unfortunately, some elements indicate that the real situation is rather different from the declarations made. For instance, in evaluating intangible resources, the empirical evidence shows that in the accounts to financial community, corporations relegate investments in the development of human capital in the indistinct magma of social responsibility activities or social balance sheet.
Additionally, more aggregate data indicate a clear preference of financial markets for costcutter corporate profiles, regardless of the value or productivity generated by cost reduction. As already shown in many investigations, there is a remarkable preference by financial markets for aggressive organisational behaviours, built for instance on the rapid reduction of human capital costs that inevitably jeopardise the supposed centrality of human capital.
This is a contradiction. In fact, if the stock of knowledge and competence of a corporation represents a key element of the innovation and development processes, if these processes are necessary to maintain leadership positions in high added value sectors and globalise competitiveness, then the issue is sustainability of competitive edge and not of social responsibility. It is however true that investments in human capital of meta-national corporations in developing Countries - such as training - also produce important positive "social" effects that go well beyond corporation boundaries. The economic research has drawn attention to the link between investments in human capital, in particular training, education and economic development.
Moreover, unlike the physical and, in part, also financial capital, the effects of capital are exercised on very broad temporal horizons.
Some important issues come to light when looking from a closer perspective at corporations and at the effects of investments in human capital on the sustainability of competitive edge. A first issue is pay-back, that is the return time of investments in human capital that seem to be inconsistent with respect to market action speed, reference temporal horizons of investors and persistent instability and uncertainty conditions of competitive and geo-political scenarios. In an attempt to overcome this problem, reasoning must shift from the levels of human capital (stock) to the effects it may produce.
Corporate practices that have been extremely popular in recent years, such as for example the ones on talents, have contributed to consolidating this distortion. Confusion has been also nourished by the aseptic translation of macro-economic logic (i.e. the educational levels of a Country will help its economic development) into corporate policies. In fact, at an organisational level, although measured correctly, human capital stock can only partially predict individual and organisation performance. A second aspect, in detriment of studies on "capital levels", shows the need to recuperate a perspective that looks at processes triggered by investments in human capital (innovation, productivity) and consequent performances. From this perspective, the equation that governs individual, group and organisational performance is more complex than the simple link with the capital of knowledge, competence and skills.
To solve such a paradox we must consider that the human capital-performance relation is activated through some crucial organisational processes, which see the intervention of factors that refer to people and groups on scales that are different from the ones that are generally used when we talk about human capital - competence, knowledge or skills. In other words, a human capital engine for development and sustainable growth must not be confined only to competence levels, but it must include at least two other important factors.
We have known for a long time now that competence or knowledge is not able to produce satisfactory results if it is not sided by consistent levels of personal motivation, commitment and involvement. The stereotype of demotivated talent or of the "good, but noncommitted" student generally indicates performance levels that are inappropriate or under expectations. When we talk about human capital, from the perspective of the results it may produce and not in terms of stock, we necessarily need to consider the socio-psychological processes of identification and commitment at an individual level, to which social influence, cohesion and leadership dynamics in the organisation are added. It is a set of factors that, together with human capital levels, determine a relevant part of individual and group performances. Also at broader levels than corporations, social climate elements - cohesion, identification, citizenship - are factors that nourish economic growth and represent a component of the social capital. Moreover, there are some organisational factors that affect the way in which "motivated human capital" is organised in a corporation like an economic system.
Therefore, there is an organisational factor that is complementary to human capital and motivation, which is necessary to generate sustainable performance. In other words, the unorganised human capital is not able to translate its sustainable growth potential because investments in human capital are largely unproductive if not accompanied by adequate investments in and attention to organisational skills. In summary, still looking at the effects produced by human capital and not at its absolute level, organisational skills are a competence at corporate level that effectively combine the human capital and the psychological processes that are implied in the personorganisation relation. If not fully understood, such a complex complementarity will feed a syllogism that often becomes a self-confirmation trap of the uselessness of human capital investments: since human capital investments are made and no tangible results are seen, it is believed that no relation between human capital and performance exists.
The role of business in local development
Glenn Denning, Director of the Center on Globalization and Sustainable Development The Earth Institute, Columbia University
Which are - in your view - the real priorities for sustainable development in developing countries? Which are the "must do" actions to achieve the MDGs in the poorest areas of Africa or Asia?
Sustainable development requires that we first meet the most basic human needs: sufficient, healthy and nutritious food; clean drinking water; effective sanitation; and access to essential health services and education. But escaping extreme poverty also requires that households and communities engage in business enterprises that generate employment and income.
In low-income Countries, smallholder farming is typically the basis of both food security and income generation for 60-80% of the population. By increasing farm productivity and improving access to markets, farmers are able to generate surpluses above their subsistence requirements.
These surpluses, in turn, can stimulate economic growth in rural areas with impacts extending to the entire economy.
This agricultureled economic transformation took place throughout much of Asia and Latin America beginning in the 1960s. Basic infrastructure in the form of rural roads and electrification are important catalysts for the provision of basic public services and for increasing economic growth though improved market access. Access to mobile phone networks and the internet has opened up unprecedented opportunities for information sharing within and across all sectors. All of these investments must be accompanied with actions that protect the environment and conserve essential natural resources for a healthy and productive life for current and future generations of producers and consumers.
Achieving the MDGs in the poorest areas of the world requires an integrated multi-sector approach that includes support for more productive and diversified agriculture, improved access to health services and sanitation, full access to primary and secondary education for girls and boys, critical infrastructure investments, environmental restoration and protection, and business enterprise development. Investments and better policies across all of these sectors will reduce extreme poverty and create the conditions for more sustainable and equitable development.
Which kind of role do you see for the private sector - and in particular for multinational companies?
Sustainable development incorporates three broad components: environmental sustainability, social sustainability, and economic sustainability. A healthy private sector is the key for achieving economic sustainability. Small- and medium-scale enterprises generate essential products and services that fuel the local economy and provide jobs. Multinational companies can make important contributions to national development.
They generate revenues, which can then support public investment programs. International companies can bring much needed capital, technology and expertise, that can also "spillover" into domestic enterprises or other sectors of the economy. They can help develop smaller, national and local companies, through supply and service relationships and they can support the improvement of infrastructure (power, roads, rail, ports and ICT) that foster development in other sectors of the economy.
Do you think there's some distinctive contribution that extractive industry - and oil&gas sector in particular - can give?
Extractive industries have both an opportunity and a responsibility to foster sustainable development in their Countries of operation. Many extractive industry projects take place in poor regions with vast development potential. It is a challenge both for investors and governments to optimize the contribution of extractive industries to the sustainable development of local communities affected by the extractive projects and of the broader region.
Failure to meet this challenge can engender political and social opposition which leads to suboptimal development and investor outcomes. Avoiding such negative outcomes requires an understanding of the complex development needs of the communities and countries in which the investments take place, and an action plan that addresses these specific needs and development priorities. Through a partnership of the Earth Institute and the Columbia Law School, the Vale Columbia Center on Sustainable International Investment has identified five essential "pillars" that should guide the contribution of extractive industries to sustainable development.
These five pillars integrate the responsibilities of extractive industries companies, governments, communities and other development partners into a framework for realizing resourcebased sustainable development. First, extractives should recognize a responsibility to support integrated area development, both in the immediate locality of the extractive investments, and at regional and national scales.
These investments become a win-win for the extractive industries and the host countries by ensuring more inclusive growth and thus avoiding conflict and social unrest that may undermine sustainable investment and development. Second, extractive industries, host governments and other stakeholders should identify opportunities to leverage the resource investments to meet the development needs of the region. For instance, oil and gas companies and governments should consider the current and future domestic needs for oil and gas, including the potential for downstream industries, as well as opportunities to build capacity among local suppliers.
Transport and energy infrastructure can also be used for improving the productivity and market access of agriculture, which is often the principal source of livelihood of local communities. Third, extractives must work with governments, communities and other partners to manage and reduce the cumulative environmental risks and impacts associated with resource investments, including of the related infrastructure investments, while helping to address the most pressing environmental challenges in the region, which may include climate change resilience, water management or deforestation. Fourth, extractive companies and other stakeholders should encourage and support effective government strategies and capacity for managing resource revenues, including national development planning, effective budgetary mechanisms and execution, and strategic allocation of resource revenues.
Fifth, extractive companies should support a transparent, robust, legal framework for extractive investments, that is implemented and monitored by strong governmental and societal institutions, with the cooperation of industry. This includes, among other things, supporting fiscal regimes that ensure the fair distribution of resource revenues between the companies and the governments, and committing to contract transparency, so that governments and communities can understand how the risks, benefits and responsibilities are allocated among the various stakeholders. In recent years, many Countries have seen how the extractive industry can play a driving force for national economic growth but because this growth to continue steadily over time, it will be needed strategies and investment that promote a more inclusive and fair national development. It's time for the extractive industry to demonstrate competence, commitment and leadership skills beyond its core business. Therefore, the extractive industry would commit fully to sustainable development.
Which are the major challenge and what's wrong in the programs that are now in place in developing countries?
In my 35 years of experience in development projects in Asia and Africa, I have concluded there are broadly 7 success factors: First, engage communities to identify priorities and promote local leadership. Second, work together with governments, both local and national, to ensure alignment and complementarity of development investments with strategies and priorities. Of course, transparent goals and mutual accountability of results are essential ingredients for a productive partnership with government. Third is the need to invest in the development of local and national capacity. Technical assistance may be needed in strategic and critical areas, but it should always aim to reinforce and advance local institutional capacity over time. Fourth, identify best practices and establish practical monitoring and evaluation systems. Fifth, encourage public-private partnerships and support enterprise development, contributing in this way to economic sustainability. Sixth, engage several partners and deploy a range of multiple technologies and skills. Seventh, invest for the long-term. A common failure I have observed is the premature termination of promising projects. The development of communities, business enterprise and local skills, needs time to be built, definitely not through a 3- to 5-year project.
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